"Hubble Bubble Forecasting Trouble” – A Comparison Between 8 Common Cost Forecasting Methods

Title: "Hubble Bubble Forecasting Trouble” –  A Comparison Between 8 Common Cost Forecasting Methods

Author: Stephen J.C. Paterson

Abstract: Forecasts, one of the most important tools in a Project Controls Practitioners toolkit, the importance of which cannot be stressed enough. Although it may not be an exact science, analyzing the project data, evaluating the trends and getting the message to Project Team and Stakeholders is an important step in creating a successful project. Yes, creating, successful projects just don’t happen by themselves, they are created by a team of competent professionals utilizing the best resources available to them. Nowadays, a high percentage of projects are failing due to several factors, one of which is poor “tracking and analysis. Tracking and analysis cover a large scope in the practitioner’s remit, part of which is forecasting. This forecasting needs to be accurate, utilizing as much of the historic and current data as possible to provide the best possible information to allow informed decisions to be made.

The NDIA’s “Guide to Managing Programs and Projects Using Predictive Measures” along with the Guild of Project Controls “Compendium and Reference” (CaR) are two sources of information available to practitioners that should be considered when performing such analysis. 

This paper explores the information contained within these sources and applies their formulas against a live project to determine which methodology provides the best accuracy, before providing some guidelines for fellow practitioners to consider when developing similar forecasts. Login to Download / Read Full Paper

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