Construction Boom, how long?

Dear All,



PP is a public and professional forum and anyone could express their view as the thought it’s valuable and beneficial to PPers. If we don’t like the post(s) we keep it to ourselves and continue sharing.



I hope our views here are conducted in accordance with PP forum rules and guidelines.



#2 of which is:

"Keep conversations civil. This is a professional forum. Flaming, taunting, name calling, abusive language and derisive / condescending posts will not be tolerated".



Just trying to help everyone and PP.



Best regards,

R. Catalan

Reading this forum - Gerome needs to be praised at his forecasting of the disaster which is now at our door. His forum was well written and makes for good reading.

Yes it has nothing to do with planning or Boom how long? but it was even better it was waving the warnings flags that the shit was going to hit the fan.



This is what makes some of the posts intelligent and worthwhile reading. Not like some other mumbo jumbo rubish that usualy gets posted. I hope some members will follow your example.



Thanks.

Boom is over and normalizing will take time. I guess the Planners could see that the bust was comming, I mean the experienced eyes could see it comming. Lets hope the market normalizes ... no.. no.. the boom is not comming back.



Anees

Safak,



Good to read your positive outlook

Dear PP audience,



All market crashes like a plane in the end of 2008. There will be projects, a cycle, money and investments but the big portion of the fish just vaporized. The number of projects reduced so rapidly. Construction companies in 1st 100 bankrupt. FSU construction market collapse (I think FSU market WAS big and rich as gulf).



As a refresh colleague of yours, it is really becoming hard to find a job in the market right now. Especially after seeing the boom of 2008, drop of demand for technical-financial engineers etc. concerns newbies like me a lot.



There are very lucky (I know this is coming with good investments and hard study) companies that selling flats like cheese with good marketing and becoming as a brand. Unfortunately they are small portion in market.



There are wise individuals from all around the world in PP, everybody can see the decline in consumption and demand. Governmental Pressures (decreasing the taxes, investing money, releasing treasury bonds ….), new funds and agreements will leave the market as in this status until the end of year. End of the 2009 oil prices will rise again and everybody will take a breath.



Important option for me is that there will be no market for us as before as overrated and just worker number oriented for next 4-5 years. I cannot continue to improve myself with earning good as before. I think I can go and write my master thesis right now.



Regards,



Safak

Well, we re-started this debate and the CNN changed its slide to "ROAD TO RECOVERY".



Should I trust them and start spending????



Or this may be another scam???

Next boom is PI.





Cheers,

Charles,



It’s not over yet, recession is an economic cycle. But maybe it will take time to recover for Dubai due to foreign invested projects.



Normally government take bold steps to reduce the effect on its economy. Yes, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi & Qatar felt the global crisis but it will not take long happy days is coming back soon.



Sometimes recession is a blessing in disguise to other big spenders like Abu Dhabi. There’s rumors that they’re even buying Dubai companies, and lately acquired a big portion of Daimler Co. (Mercedes-Benz). Some developers are taking advantage of the drop in material prices (-30%) but this can be seen from mid-late 2009.



Regards,

R. Catalan

As far as Algeria is concerned, there is no slow down of projects in O&G sector, just this year we saw the launch of three large scale projects ( LNG plant, and Two CPF).



so let’s just hope the price of oil will recover, so investing in new facilities will make sens.

That may be true of the Civils Construction boom but the O&G construction is still plodding on, albeit guardedly.

O&G sector cut too truthlessly last dip and many people did not come back into the profession.

Speculative dock slots have probably stopped, big offshore projects in W. Africa still going ahead. OPEC want price barrel of crude to be 75$ and by hook or crook, thats what it will be by late 2009/2010.

Boom is over. I’ve been to boomtown.



I worked in Malaysia during the real estate boom sometimes in 1994 to 1996. The government provided infrastructure to support development: KLIA, LRT.



I worked in Indonesia from 1997 to 1998.



I worked in Dubai from 2004 to 2008.



I read what happen in Hong Kong.



The boom is over, the speculator will lick their wounds. How to recover the investor’s money, No one knows.



but the boom is over. There is still worked in Malaysia but not the same as before. Same with Indonesia. It will be the same in Dubai.



Cheers,

Charlie

Just like the so called "financial experts", some planners got it right. Some didn’t.

as far as dubai scenario is concerned, here is a small example of how good (or bad) the projects are going...



http://www.thenational.ae/article/20090323/BUSINESS/771824616&SearchID=…



Need to wait and watch when things will take shape... and when investors will get their returns on money back.

Hi all

Well, I believe engineers are not only TECHNICALLY SOUND but really good financial experts too. Just read this post & you will know.



I thought its good to re-alive this post as someone out there had a better vision than many.



But, I want to take a step further. Since the bust is here now and we know it will not last forever, I ask



WHAT SECTOR WOULD IT BE THE FIRST TO SHOW SIGN OF REVIVAL AND EVENTUALLY PUT THE ECONOMY BACK ON TRACK???

What have I said !!!

Dubai was AN EXAMPLE !!!

I did not mean to pull the thread away from its common goal, Boom or Bust.

But it has to be said a place like Dubai, which is eating up a lot of resources from around the world, has to be adding something to the global economy.

All the steel and most of the materials are imported from around the world. Steel prices have increased.

But is the places where these materials are coming from start to feel a pinch it will be disaster for Dubai and the stupid people who have invested here.



That being said for a reduction or halt of the projects worldwide there needs to be a global depression, which I believe is starting.



London: house prices went through the roof, people borrowed like mad as interest rates were low. Now there fixed interest rate terms are coming to an end, there mortgages and loans repayments are much higher now. The wages are still the same though !



America: housing market on the brink of collapse, this is one of the main reasons why we are starting to feel shakes around the world.



Wars around the world (right or wrong), governments are spending billions on these.

Cost is 1 billion per day + - this has to be hurting someone’s economy ?



I do think there will be a shift the question is when. – back to the thread !!

I have also been looking at this, as I am one of the lucky ones who have good money invested in the housing market back in the U.K. I am getting ready to sell my property. When: early next year is when I think there will be a slow decline in pricing. This will be masked by Christmas which everyone stretches themselves on the credit cards, it’s not till March when they are trying to pay it back and go further into debt.

Banks around the world are increasing interest rates this affects us all and the project we work on.



Nieman Naas: I agree with what you say, but one thing I do not agree on is Dubai is at risk from terrorists. why it is the largest washing machine in the world, most of the worlds dirty money comes through Dubai / UAE. If a terrorist wanted to make a name for himself then this would be the place to do it, why don’t they… Dubai launders the money for them.

America have also a lot of money invested in this country as do many others, there is also a lot of Russian mobsters money here. Even the Bin Larden family has offices and work in Dubai (not associated with there famous family member). Dubai says no American vessels will dock here but why do I keep bumping into solders that are on R&R from Iraq. Also with Iran on the scene, many of these people are buying large amounts of property here in case of any war in Iran.

I do not believe that anyone would bomb this place as I think they are getting fringe benefits from not doing so !!! If someone did bomb Dubai or UAE the flood of non-nationals leaving in a hurry would mean certain collapse of the country and any building work going on. For those who stayed it would mean big money to be earned !!!

I suppose watch this space in the Boom or Bust tell, tell signs !!!

If I was able to call the end of the boom then I wouldn’t be sitting here replying to this!



However, as Clive says, Dubai and UAE (& Bahrain) are sitting on a tinderbox, with our fundamentalist friends sitting next door in Iraq and Iran, learning new guerilla tactics. It is only a matter of time before someone launches a speculative attack on one of the high value developments currently ongoing or completed recently, looking to maximise publicity for a particular viewpoint.



At that time there will be a re-evaluation of the willingness to develop in the Gulf, and certainly a reluctance of the target market to go and live there. Then we will see a bust like nothing before - when that will be - you tell me!



In London, the boom will continue until the housing market in London turns - (probably quite soon) - this will depend on the liars loans that have been taken out and when the interest rates get too high for a significant number of people to default on their mortgages (as in the USA recently - it is coming to UK as well). That will knock the froth off the market, but the underlying base of the Olympics and the Office market will keep construction turning till 2012. After that its anyone’s guess......The office boom will be over late 2008, early 2009, the Olympic construction and Crossrail will carry on, with the redevelopment of terminal 1 and 2 at Heathrow going through to 2012/3. By then the government will have run out of things to build too - hospitals and schools etc, however we should then be moving on the the next generation of Nuclear Power Stations?????

This is not place to discuss some COUNTRY’s economy.



The thread is all about Constructin boom, How long?



Even if UAE survives say from TOURISM, construction boom will not last for too long, say by 2017, most of the ambititous projects will be over and by that time, they wud like to develop all these areas as TOURISTS spot.



and NOT d way, gerome has said with workers staring or taking photos of ur girlfriend/wife/baby.



If the building has been designed specifically for specific group of people, then ultimately it will be used for that group only. Most of the projects like DUBAI LAND, WATERFRONT, all fancy PALM’s will b over by that time.



So, CONSTRUCTION BOOM, how long? Next 10-12 years or so....



Cheers,

I mentioned specifically the whole middleast in my last post bacause I believe most of the money that goes to dubai may not only come from the emiratis themselves or from western countries but mainly from fellow middeleasterner like saudis and iranians who are the direct beneficiaries of high oil price.



On the issue of single product economy, i don’t think this is the case of dubai. the country has been trying hard to diversify their economy which to me, maybe one of the reasons why they are quite successful.



Anyway, only time will tell if the bear period will come to the "fields of dreams".

There’s too much hollywood there in dubai. Remember the famous line in the "Fields of Dreams", "Build it, and they will come". Yeah people came, but what gerome is telling us, is that soon, they will leave.



My view here is, as long as money from oil continues to flow, development in the middleast won’t stop. Middleast is not Southeast asia during the 1997 financial crisis. Even if buildings are not occupied in the Middleast, they can still survive because they have lots of money to sustain and maintain an empty building unlike in Southeast asia.



IMHO



Se

The main topic is Building boom, reading the threads below mine refers to a bust / recession or even worse depression.

My point on Dubai was not meant to slag this country off, although I could if given the chance !!

It was about what the hell are they doing here. They are building too much, way too fast in remote places. The basic are not even set up here like good public transport ect.

They have this stupid idea if they build right next too a war torn country and another who is treading on thin ice, everyone will flock here as it has no crime and it is cheap.

Fact is there is a lot of crime (mainly petty and drugs related) and it is not cheap.

They are bringing over people from countries to build Dubai, who are working on so little wages it is modern day slave labor.

Even Chinese convicts are now over here helping.

The workers are by the thousand and they are not skilled, they learn on the job.

People say it’s a life style chance, but this is media hype.

I was using Dubai as an example not a point of topic. Dubai is media hype to get people here & make the country even more richer than the sheiks already are !



I do think with the state of affairs around the world at the moment and the stock market conditions there will be a large Lull coming soon.

England is on a boom due to Olympics and other government projects. There are other Booms going on with the world cup and alike.

But if America’s stock market keeps sending out shocks around the world all countries no matter where would feel the pinch.

Which will mean projects being cancelled and less need for planners.

and too many people from "Gods Own Country" ....

hi

ravi

reading your and gerome comments and my fast few months experience of dubai.

every night when i go to my room i just think what madness brought me here.

there nthing here, climates not gud, rents too much high, and if you look at coming projects is is that who would stay here.

i am just looking for that day when i will finally leave dubai ( that day may come at anytime).

anyway thats life



cheers



mangesh

Hi Gerome,



beautifully said and written,



but forgot to write about the so called greenary here!!



LANDSCAPING is done in DUABI with only grass and other small bushes. Even if u have to drive down somewhere u can only see asphalted road, Buildings and SAND & SAND & SAND & SAND only.



just drive down along the Emirates Road (Dubai Land), u will go MAD. U will surely remember those rainy days in ur hometown.

Atkin



Good comments on Dubai. seems close to reality..

One major factor I can see in Dubai is there is nothing here !! Nothing is finished !!

All we have is wild wadi, snow dome, shopping malls, sand and dust.

To go to the beach you either go to the public beach where the workers stare at your wife and baby and take pictures or pay to visit one of the hotels. There are no fish in the sea unless you go over to the Indian Ocean side as they have all been sucked up, the traffic is mad. Dubai is one great idea, but nothing is finished to say if it will be a success.

Also you have the skyscraper theory, 2 years after the worlds largest skyscraper has been built the country goes bust !!

I agree that Dubai is one of the countries, which are spending big. But if you have ever been here there is nothing to do. If I did not work here under a 2-year contract I would not be here.

Rent for apartments is high, living costs are not that much different from the U.K. (Mortgage and council tax together)

You don’t pay tax on your earnings but it not a hey day for us British abroad, as there is such good money being offered in the U.K. at the moment. (I left to increase my knowledge in claims)

People in Dubai are finding it very hard to afford to live due to the expense of it all.

Companies are not offering good wages, as margins on projects are tight, the people they hire are not that good as they are not paid great wages.

With the way the economy is going in general around the world Dubai, in my opinion will be heading for the biggest fall known to date.

Many apartments are coming on line (fecking sh!t loads), which will be empty as they are asking too much for them in rent or purchase them.

The ideas they have are GREAT, but how many people do they expect to come out here, most devolvements are HUGE the size of a small town. If you are on the Dubai beach and turn to face in land all you can see are high rise towers, it looks like a council estate from back home !!!

Shopping alone will not decide where you go on holiday and there are cheaper places to go and better things to see.

If all the countries around the world are suffering from a recession, who could afford the living out here.

Dubai for me is one big disappointment, but I have learnt a lot and met some good people so not all bad.

Once 2010 comes !!!! There should be more to see with Dubai world, but who want to go out in 40 degrees heat on fun fair rides !!!

The Metro system will be slow and congested; there is no postman, the roads are full and dangerous, hookers drive you mad when out of a night…... Come to Dubai life is Sh!t !!!!

hi guys,



as far as Dubai is concerned construction boom will be there atleast till 2020 because there are lot of proects in line which will be going for long time.

for example Dubai waterfront which is a largest man made development in the world is started last year and only infrastructure construction will go upto 2015 followed by other developments. there are some other projects in line too.

if you think of UAE then it may go beyond because UAE govt has a plan to develop Abu Dhabi in the same line of Dubai or may be at much larger scale. this will will followed by other emirates too.

so for UAE its long run.



cheers,



Dev