Baked In Optimism – the reason so many projects fail

Member for

24 years 8 months

Resource constraints are usual in most projects and so they must be taken into account.

Estimating future performance based solely on the past performance is not reliable. Future can contain new risks, some new data like future changes in resource availability can become known, and a lot more.

I would not rely on any method that looks only to the past to forecast project outcome.

We usually explain our customers that 70% probability to meet project target calculated by Monte Carlo or any other method is actually 50% for several reasons. One of them: we missed something almost certainly.

Member for

24 years 8 months

Resource constraints are usual in most projects and so they must be taken into account.

Estimating future performance based solely on the past performance is not reliable. Future can contain new risks, some new data like future changes in resource availability can become known, and a lot more.

I would not rely on any method that looks only to the past to forecast project outcome.

We usually explain our customers that 70% probability to meet project target calculated by Monte Carlo or any other method is actually 50% for several reasons. One of them: we missed something almost certainly.