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Methods of Impact Analysis

11 replies [Last post]
Shareef Abdul Azeez
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I have heard there are many ways of impact analysis...

such as..

1. As-planned impact analysis
2. Time slice method
3. As-built method

etc...

I normally use as-planned method.

Can any one describe how the other methods are....

Replies

Shah. HB
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Hi

Try this link you might get steps to proceed further

http://www.aacei.org/technical/rp.shtml#53R-06

Shareef Abdul Azeez
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Thanx all,

I have got a general idea about the different methods....

but still require some clarifications...

1. How is Time Impact done.
2. How do we compare as planned Vs as built, meaning for sure the as built bars will normally be later than the planned bars; then how do we show the resultant delay. Do we have to remove the actual dates from as built programme and insert an activitiy to bring the bar to the actual date. Is it something like this?
3. How is as built but for method done.?

4. What is the use in dividing the programme in windows method, when normally a delay on a critical activity delays the project through out the duration of the project.

I know my questions are below average for a planner !!!
A D
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Thanks Toby for ur advise.

I was just playing part of devils advocate to get few bits of experts advise

Toby Hunt
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Riveraj

It is worth noting that Mike’s view not to use Windows is just one view amongst many.

I would suggest that you careful listen to what the delay expert is saying and then question his method etc if necessary.

At the end of the day, it is the tribunal that decices the dispute that will need to be convinced, and they may not understand the complexities of delay analysis, and as such the experts abiity to make it as "understandable" as possible is very important.

Regards

Toby
Mike Testro
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Hi Raviraj

Do not use windows for forensic situations.

Award an interim EoT if it is justified and then a final Wrap up EoT at the end of the job.

Remember that an award cannot be reduced once it has been issued so interim awards are usually conservative.

Best regards

Mike Testro
A D
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Thanks Mike for ur explanation.

For ongoing work the windows method is the only method to be used because there is no as built data for the future.

And u r saying in forensic situation Windows Analysis not to be used.

So, what @ awarding an interim extension of time? If v r in middle of the project and contractor has submitted their claim, then shall i wait upto end of the project or shall i adopt windows slicing method for analysis?
Mike Testro
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Hi Raviraj

The Burj Dubai is in progress - the analysts are not coming back a year after it is opened.

For ongoing work the windows method is the only method to be used because there is no as built data for the future.

Using windows in a forensic situation is a complete waste of time because:

1. In month 10 you have to pretend that you do not know what has happened in month 11.
2. The same analysis has to be repeated many times over.
3. It is impossible to demonstrate concurrency.
4. It is easy to be charged with "Cherry Picking".

A properly demonstrated forensic time impact analysis does not need a shedload of paper.

With a proper audit trail all relevant documents can be stored electronically and with most planning software you can set up hyperlinks to the file base.

Click on the event in the chart and the relevant back up data fills the screen - with highlight and arrows to show the relevant sections - you can even have a voice over.

Best regards

Mike Testro
A D
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Hi Mike,

It is being used now on the world’s most prestogious building project (To be inaugrated tomorrow). It is such a complex project, with n number of issues, but these guys have covered each and everything beautifully in their submission. I have used it twice but on a comparatively small and simple projects.

But still as far as my point goes, windows slicing is only for presentation and one has to use as-built but-for method or suitable analysis method.

The computers have in fact, made the windows slicing more favourable. For a three year project, u can use windows of 1 month each and then can update the program at the end of each window and then can analyse the critical path thereon. This will make the analysis more dynamic in nature reacting to the changes / variations with each updated window.

In short, u can use any analysis method depending upon teh data available, but instead of using it for the whole project, use it for each window period.

(Claim consultant don’t use this because it takes lot of time and effort to present the case in a neat and clean way. Rather they prefer to print tons of paper and use a fork lift to carry from one office to another.)

Coming back to the original question of Methods of Impact Analysis, these are the methods

A. Static Method:
1. As-planned versus as-built
2. as planned impacted
3. as-built but-for

B. Dynamic Method:
1. Time Impact Analysis

Mike Testro
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Hi Raviraj

The windows method was adopted by the American Core of Engineers as a method of calculating delay events before computers were readily available.

It was part of the monthly review meeting to estimate ongoing delays on the hand drawn programme.

It works fine for ongoing work in progress - but not for forensic delays.

When computer analysis came along it was possible to develop more complex methods and forensic delay analysis was developed using more sophisticated and accurate methods.

The Americans howver continued to use their windows analysis even in forensic situations and for a while it was the dominant method.

It isn’t any more.

Any consultant taking millions from their client using windowws are wasting his money.

Best regards

Mike Testro
A D
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Hi Shareef,

Let me clarify u regarding the Windows Analysis. Here’s my two cents

Windows (Watersheds) is not a method a analysis but it is just a graphical presentation of conducting an EOT Analysis or u can say, it is a methodology . The project duration is divided into smaller periods (Quarter, months, weeks) for analysis and then u can apply any technique to these windows.

The important asepect of this method is NOT in what is analysed or how, but in the point at which it is analysed.

The method for analysis can be decided which is suitable to the data to be analysed. Some people use as-planned versus as-built while some people prefer as-built but for method.

At the end of each window, the critical path is analysed to determine the effect of the delay event.

Each window will have very limited activities for analysis and so, it is more accurate. However, if teh as-built records are not available, then the quality suffers.

It takes time, but it is a great tool eapecially for the management to understand what these claim consultants have done after taking millions from their pocket.

:-)
Mike Testro
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Joined: 14 Dec 2005
Posts: 4418
Hi Shareef

There have been many threads on this topic and what has become clear is that different terms mean different things in different locations.

Basically there are 3 analysis methods that work.

1. When the work is ongoing a delay event is impacted onto the baseline programme to estimate the likely effect of the event on progress and completion.

2. Where work has been completed and there is sufficient As Built data to compare with the As Planned activities then:
2.1 Did the delay events cause the difference between the As Built v As Planned and if so:
2.2 Could the contractor have mitigated the delay and:
2.3 Were there any concurrent events.

3. Where sub-contract work is sandwiched between other trades were the actual start dates different to the planned start dates?

In the UK:

1. Impacted as Planned
2. Time Impact
3. As Built v As Planned.

Other systems such as As Built But For and Time Slice / Windows are now discredited.

Best regards

Mike Testro