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Need Guidance on Schedule Risk analysis

3 replies [Last post]

I have an updated schedule,

3. some activites are completed.

2. some have started but not completed

3. some not yet started.

I want to run a schedule risk analysis to no my probabilistic completion date. the schedule is not resource loaded.

 

whats the best approach to this

Replies

Alex Lyaschenko
User offline. Last seen 4 weeks 4 days ago. Offline
Joined: 15 Aug 2011
Posts: 8
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Hi Ibrahim,

It is importnat which schedudling tool you are going to use. Spider Project would able to produce probability of success (schedule, cost or both) but you would need to have risk data in your schedule.  

Risk data could be presented a number of ways. Two the most traditional:

1. Risk to activity durations;  

2. Risk event. 

In P6 and MSP you would need to use external plugins but they only support Monter Carlo analsyis. 

Rafael Davila
User offline. Last seen 59 min 20 sec ago. Offline
Joined: 1 Mar 2004
Posts: 4922

Please be reminded that each iteration must be resource-leveled if some resource(s) is (are) limited.  In real life most schedules are resource constrained.  Closing your eyes to the issue of resource usage and availability is not a good idea.

Project Schedule Risk Analysis Simplified

Page 8 - If several activities using the same resource are potentially scheduled at the same time, they may require more of that resource than is available. Resource leveling in CPM pushes one or another resource-using activity out in time so that a resource’s usage does not exceed its availability in any time period.  Because each solution in a risk analysis must at least be feasible, it should not violate any resource limitations that exist.  Each iteration must be resource-leveled if some resource(s) is (are) limited.

Santosh Bhat
User offline. Last seen 12 hours 51 min ago. Offline
Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Posts: 287

Schedule Risk Analysis only ever uses remaining durations - there is no risk on completed tasks.

Couple of websites that contain a lot of good info:

https://www.riskinteg.com/ and http://www.projectrisk.com/