Vladimir

I was thinking in the CPM, you may or may not have fully resource driven activity as a result the activity critical path may not necessary driven by the resource critical path.

Any thoght??

Alex

Vladimir

Your post kept me thinking whether a Activity Critical Path is always driven by the resource criticial path.

Anythough... Everyone

Alex

Hi Neil,

I think you should consider the topic "Management by Objective"

A lot of planning schedule were generated but the will to achieve what was planned seems none existence. The weekly objective not achieved, the monthly objective not achieve, the three months - six months objective not achieve.

So in your research, try to consider the HOW to achieve deterministic and probabilistic schedule. This may involve a closer look on the real/actual management set-up and philosphy, not the brochure or propaganda materials that construction companies attached in compayny profile to get invitation to bid or proposal.

Cheers,

Charlie

Stephen,
look at http://www.spiderproject.ru/library/tt.doc
In this paper I briefly described our approaches to corporate project management. Risk simulation section is about buffer setting and management that we call Success Driven Project Management (SDPM).
Spider Project calculates Resource Critical Path since 1992.
In 1997 Goldratt called Resource Critical Path as Critical Chain. But it is not easy to calculate and Goldratt did not suggest any algorithms. His concept of drum resource may work in manufacturing but not in projects.

Stephen,
I agree with most things that you wrote except suggested too simplistic approach to estimating necessary buffers. And Critical Path shall be replaced by Resource Critical Path. If you optimized resource constrained schedule and this schedule suggests some multitasking then it is the best solution. I would not state that multitasking is always bad.
Regards,
Vladimir

Vladimir, you’re absolutely right -- it would!

I think it isn’t discussed because most people dealing with project contracts and control like to pretend that schedule reserve doesn’t exist! And so most contractors don’t "show" reserve in the contract and baseline because if they do, the customer will simply say: "Take that out!"

As we both recognize, this is extremely shortsighted and counter-productive, as not having reserve causes bad decisions, and invisible scope and quality pruning. So good project managers, faced with an impossible situation, build the extra time in anyway, by padding the baseline and adding long "Test & Integrate" activities. But such padding is invisible and uncontrollable, as opposed to specific line items called buffers and reserve. And with "project profit" and "acceleration premiums" rarely recognized and measured, Pakinson’s Law ("Work expands to fill time available.") practically guarantees that the padded time will be consumed.

From a BCWS viewpoint, I think the cost of a buffer would be the "marching army" cost: i.e., the LOE and support resources needed to keep the project going during the extra time, and the overhead-burdens of resources.

P.S. An additional thought: it doesn’t help either that the one approach to project management that DOES emphasize buffers, TOC, tends to disparage the worth of earned value tracking, as though buffer tracking and earned value tracking were mutually exclusive!

Neil,

This subject is far too long to cover in a post, or even three. Some points:

1. Scheduling is not a separate issue within a project -- it should always be driven by tradeoffs with the other requirements: scope/time/cost of the Triple Constraint triangle. And the goal of scheduling (and the other sides)should be to produce the most "profitable" project in terms of value minus cost.

2. There is nothing wrong with probabilistic scheduling in theory, but in practice it’s often implemented with poor understanding of the theoretical base, and fraught with cover-your-posterior padding.

3. The purpose of deterministic scheduling is NOT to generate a detailed working schedule, but a baseline or contractual schedule. The probabilistic schedule reduces risk by adding sufficient schedule reserve so that a deadline that can be reached 50%, or 67%, or 84%, or 97.5%, or whatever percent, of the time can be set. But note: there is nothing magical about these numbers or amount of schedule reserve! If someone really believes that an 84% schedule is really 84%, and not 75% or 67% or 90%, they believe in voodoo. (In addition to which, these numbers vary greatly depending on the risk curve function being used. Sophisticated packages offer user-defined functions for each task, but 99.99% of projects using such software simply rely on a default function for all tasks: either triangular or beta [which can give hugely disparate project estimates].

4. No matter what the baseline schedule is, the working schedule should be more aggressive, with reserve built in (1) at the end; (2) before important milestones; and/or (3)before merge points where delays may be costly. The only reliable way to meet a deadline is to work to a more aggressive schedule. The working schedule is "deterministic", based on a single amount of time budgeted for each task.

5. Schedule reserve is almost always on the critical path, and therefore has both DRAG and DRAG Cost. Know what the DRAG Cost is for all schedule reserve, so you can decide if it’s worth it, and how much you’ll save by avoiding using it.

6. In general, a deterministic schedule is simpler to generate, and can be just as reliable as a probabilistic schedule if an appropriate amount of schedule reserve is added. 10% for a low-risk schedule, 20% for a medium-risk and 30% for a high-risk, and 40% for very-high-risk can give as reliable a schedule as the most sophisticated probabilistic program.

But in many organizations/programs, management is so unsophisticated that the only way to justify the reserve is by using fancy mathematics and names like Gauss and Abraham de Moivre! The voodoo impresses people.

P.S. Neil, although I don’t really deal with probabilistic scheduling, you may find something helpful in my articles at:
http://www.chiefprojectofficer.com/article/135
and
http://www.projectsatwork.com/departments/methods-means/

Good luck!