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# QUANTIFIED RISK ON PRIMAVERA RISK ANALYSIS

4 replies [Last post]
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Joined: 8 Apr 2013
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Good morning,

I'm starting to work with Primavera Risk Analysis and i would like to sort a doubt in regards the Quantification and calculations the system did on an exercise i launched some days ago. (Real information)

I built up the Risk Register and assigned the Qualitative and Quantitative information as per Risk Matrix (5x5) in which:

for e.g for the first risk i have asigned on premitigated scenario:

Qualitative evaluation: Probability 30% (L) and VH for the Schedule Impact (>5 days) - Based on matrix

Impacted 21 Tasks distributing the impact by series (Load all the impact within the activities) - it means

Triangular Distribution:
Minimum = 1
Most Likely = 1
Maximum = 1

My doubt is when i'm exporting the tabular layout and see the Quantification as follow:

Minimum Duration = 4
Most Likely Duration = 5
Maximum Duration = 7

With VH Total Quantitative value of 105

I've been looking on the tool but i have not found any clue about the calculations or the variable the program takes to calculates these Durations.

Can any please help me to interpretate these situation and the way Primavera Risk Analysis based on the Qualitative and Quantitative infromation given through Risk Register calculates these 3 Durations?

Thanks i will really appreciate the feedback.

## Replies

Dennis Hanks
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Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Posts: 310

Maria;

I understand even less.  "However i think all these calculations are based on the qualitiative vs Quantitative assesments made on the system that is customized based on Project parameters (Risk Matrix -- >  Probability vs. Impact )."  Which I think is how it is supposed to work.  Sorry I cannot be more helpful.  Perhaps someone else will help here.  Good luck.

Dennis Hanks
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Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Posts: 310

double post unable to delete

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Joined: 8 Apr 2013
Posts: 3
Groups: None

Dear Dennis,

First of all thanks for the interest on the post.

You are right, I've not modeled the Risk analysis through Quick Risk I've built up the Risk Register set up the Risk Matrix and based on the Total number of tasks the system distributued the impact by series, it means distribute the total impact on 21 tasks thats why the Distribution per task is

Min: 1 , Most Likely : 1, Max : 1

The Low impact of 30% is based on our Project Matrix -- > that maybe it could be slightly different from the parameters you use in your company.

The issue is that after running the Simulation i launched the Tabular Layout and i saw the Duration by Task where different from the distribution assigned on the Risk Register. it become

Min Dur: 4 , Most Likely Dur : 5, Max Dur : 7 -- > for each task

However i think all these calculations are based on the qualitiative vs Quantitative assesments made on the system that is customized based on Project parameters (Risk Matrix -- >  Probability vs. Impact )

Thanks again

Maria

Dennis Hanks
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Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Posts: 310

Maria:

I wished I better understood what is happening, but a few observations. First; A risk profile of 1,1,1 is a uniform distribution that will always be 1. Second; A L (low) of 30% seems relatively high - not that that means anything. Third; I suspected you may be using 'Quick Risk', but not sure since the max on Quick Risk would be 6.25 or 6.  Any chance you can attach some screen shots?

As a matter of preference, I use Quick Risk Template and Risk Factors, only rarely the mitigated/post-mitigated Risk Register, so I may not have the best understanding of your situation.