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multiple activities affected by a single risk

2 replies [Last post]
Mark Higgins
User offline. Last seen 2 years 37 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 27 Jan 2017
Posts: 2
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Good evening,

I have been approached by a PM that I support who has asked a question of which i am unsure how to answer.

The question is about applying a single risk against multiple schedule activities

would the best approach be to breakdown the over arching risk into smaller multiple risks, and apply individual probability and 3 point estimate values on a task by task basis.

The risk is based around Human Resource availability

 

any assistance would be greatly received

 

Cheers

Mark

Replies

Rafael Davila
User offline. Last seen 1 hour 58 min ago. Offline
Joined: 1 Mar 2004
Posts: 4784

Definitively resource availability might not be deterministic, this is an excellent question.

If using Spider Project I would suggest using the 3 scenarios approach to model different resource availability profiles [optimistic, pessimistic and probable] using Time or Activity resource production. 

 photo 3scenarios_zps4i9xzjdu.jpg

This method does not have many of the limitations Monte Carlo models do have and can be implemented using your CPM software without the need for specialized Risk software.

http://www.spiderproject.com/images/img/pdf/Methods%20and%20Tools%20of%20Success%20Driven%20Project%20Management.pdf

The following SPERT Excel Templates might help you get the distribution curves, with little modification you can get the cumulative % distributions.  Statistical PERT Normal Edition uses ratio scale multipliers to modify the standard deviation of a normal curve. This lets Statistical PERT work with any bell-shaped uncertainty that can be estimated using a 3-point estimate for minimum, maximum and most likely outcomes.

https://www.statisticalpert.com/download-free-templates/#duration

 photo CumS01_zpsel6afgpl.jpg

 photo CumS03_zpsdm3w7nmt.jpg

Mike Testro
User offline. Last seen 1 week 9 hours ago. Offline
Joined: 14 Dec 2005
Posts: 4395

Hi Mark - Welcome to Planning Planet

There are many types of risk that affect multiple tasks - weather is typicle.

If there is likely to be a shortgae of labour then put a cap on the number expected to be deployed and the end date will extend accordingly.

Best regards

Mike Testro