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Recommended Risk Analysis Reading

5 replies [Last post]
Wed, 2009-06-03 08:48
Jonathan Ward
User offline. Last seen 12 years 15 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 23 Jan 2007
Posts: 114
Groups: Petro-Chem / Oil & Gas
Good afternoon all,

Could anyone recommend any good reading for a beginner in Risk Analysis? I know very little on the subject and am despirate to know more about it,, my current employer runs P6 with no Pertmaster software, however I understand the importance and relevant on how this skill-set is a hugely valuable tool in the ’Planners’ Locker.

Once again

Mnay thanks
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Replies

Fri, 2009-06-05 15:44
#1
Rafael Davila
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Joined: 1 Mar 2004
Posts: 5229
Groups: Spider Project Team
Before going into the practical application the following link can provide you with an introduction of how some scheduling software manage risk.

http://pmbook.ce.cmu.edu/11_Advanced_Scheduling_Techniques.html

As you will read traditional PERT computations were in mathematical error, Pertmaster is an acquired name from a product Primavera purchased, and in reality it uses the correct algorithms for a Monte Carlo Simulation.
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Fri, 2009-06-05 09:46
#2
Samer Zawaydeh
User offline. Last seen 5 years 7 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 3 Aug 2008
Posts: 1664
Groups: Civil Engineering, Regional Representatives
Dear Jonathan,

You are most welcomed. Once you have covered the material, and you still have questions, i can give you the email of the trainer of this software in my local area. He is very cooperative and might assist some more. Drop me an email when you like.

With kind regards,

Samer
samer_zawaydeh@yahoo.com
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Fri, 2009-06-05 02:40
#3
Jonathan Ward
User offline. Last seen 12 years 15 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 23 Jan 2007
Posts: 114
Groups: Petro-Chem / Oil & Gas
Thank you Samer,

I have just placed an order with Amazon.

Best regards

Jon
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Thu, 2009-06-04 12:47
#4
Samer Zawaydeh
User offline. Last seen 5 years 7 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 3 Aug 2008
Posts: 1664
Groups: Civil Engineering, Regional Representatives
Dear Jonathan,

The software is based on the PMBOK 3rd edition. You will need to read the chapter related to the Risk process in that book. It is now considered old because a new version PMBOK 4th edition was issued last January.

I think if you search the web, you will find a source to download it or you can buy the book from Amazon or PMI for 34$.

With kind regards,

Samer
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Thu, 2009-06-04 00:12
#5
Anu Tor
User offline. Last seen 13 years 15 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 7 Mar 2007
Posts: 53
Groups: Petro-Chem / Oil & Gas
The risk analysis process is require;
1) Verify whole activities and logics those one must be realistic as most as possible.
2) Review total float to identify critical area.
3) Find-out the total work BQ and remaining BQ of each activity.
4) Calculate the working duration base on remaining BQ and productivity rate.
5) Compare the remaining duration and calculate duration as item 4.

As above express, you will see the proper duration to complete work and then you can initial analysis the project risk.

If you want to use full function, many step to do,
1) Risk Identified
2) Risk Assessment
3) Risk Avoid & Reduce
4) Risk Management
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