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Approach for quantifying disruption

5 replies [Last post]
Tue, 2005-05-17 05:47
Jihad Daniel
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If a schedule is loaded with direct man-hours and got the consent of the Engineer. Cost of the project=direct resources+indirect resources+materials. Therefore the cost of the direct man-hour can be deduced as cost of materials and indirect resources should be available. If any type of disruption occurs, therefore:
actual spent man-hours on site in a certain period = planned manhours + disrupted manhours + lost manhours
The lost manhours are those caused by decreased efficiency and productivity unrelated to the factor of disruption but depending mainly on the learning curve. In a specific type of project, Contractor should have known and classified his overall learning curve. Hence, lost man-hours can be estimated based on the learning curve percentage i.e. lost manhours are equal to 10% of the productive hours or learning curve is at 90% for example.
If substantiated records and time sheets are available to register the actual spent hours on site during a certain period, we can calculate the disrupted manhours as formulated above and having the cost of the direct man-hour, the cost of disruption is deduced.

What do you think about this approach?

Regards,
Jihad
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Replies

Mon, 2005-05-30 15:23
#1
Eiman Chebaro
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Hi ,

You can read a book called " Quantifying and managing disruption claims by Hamish Lal , published by Thomas Telford
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Sat, 2005-05-28 09:14
#2
Andrew Flowerdew
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Amr,

And there in lies the problem!!!! How do you know that the information is trustworthy? I have no answer to that except maybe doing your own research to try and verify the outputs etc - the production rates on this web site is one place to start although the circumstances they were produced in are not known. Other projects you or others have worked on might be another source. Disruption claims are very difficult to quantify, the contractor will often try to present them as globally as possible stating it’s ’impossible’ to state cause and effect in any detail - the client will take the opposite view wanting to know to the every detail and reason. And so the arguements go on.
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Sat, 2005-05-28 05:01
#3
Amr Elserafy
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Hi Andy,

i totaly agree with you that we must take into consideration all types of disruption.

I only have a question about the possibility to include information from other projects and if it is acceptable or not. The second is on what basis you will trust these information.

Regards,

Amr El-Serafy
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Mon, 2005-05-23 11:53
#4
Andrew Flowerdew
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One method of quantifying disruption is to compare disrupted element of work with similar work on the site that hasn’t been disrupted, learning curve and all being taken into account. It is often the case however that similar work is not available to compare with. Then life becomes complicated and many different ideas have been used such as comparing actual outputs with ’industry output norms’ (if you can decide what they are)or historic outputs on other projects, if available. You generally need more than this is what we priced on and this is what happened and so the difference is the disruption, learning curve being taken into account or not.
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Thu, 2005-05-19 06:00
#5
Anand Kulkarni
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Jihad,

I feel in maxium cases disruption is due indirect resources not available on right time!
i.e more due to activities logistics support than resources out-put.

And Suppose there variation in work done.
Formula doesn’t take care of same.

That’s why substantiating with overall work planned & done will give better picture.

Lets hope for some contribution on this from others!!!

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