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Trend Analysis

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Wed, 2004-08-11 02:37
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What are the major steps which we take in Trend analysis?
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Wed, 2004-08-11 03:27
#1
Luca Basile
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PS.
I think this discussion should be posted in the Project Management section.

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Wed, 2004-08-11 03:23
#2
Luca Basile
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You can perform trend analysis in different way.
One is to use the EV.

The CPI (Cost Performance Indicator) and SPI (Schedule Performance Indicator) you use in EV (Earned Value) analysis to check the health of Your project in terms of time and cost.

First define the SV (Schedule Variance) as the difference between the BCWP (Budget Cost Work Performed) and the BCWS (Budget Cost Work Schedule) and the CV (Cost Variance) as the difference between the BCWP and ACWP (Actual Cost Work Performed).
In the Cash flow chart you will have your baseline curve (BCWS), and other two lines the BWCP (the work performed at the tender costs) and ACWP (the work performed at the actual costs).

But these are big number not normalized.
To normalized you use CPI and SPI defined as
CPI = BCWP / ACWP
SPI = BCWP / BCWS

A project in time has SPI equal to 1, bigger than 1 means you are ahead schedule

A project with a CPI equal to 1 means that the cost incurred are as per tender.

You can put on chart these two parameter to analyse the health of your project and use for trend analysis after you have recorded a significant period. (the population must be statistically significant).
The TCPI (To Complete Performance Index) can be defined in cost (budget or LRE) terms.
In cost (budget) terms is the cost efficiency to complete on budget (BAC-BCWP)/(BAC-ACWP) and must checked against the CPI. If they are similar the budget estimation it can be consider still accurate.
In cost (LRE) is the cost efficiency to complete at LRE (Last Revised Estimation) (BAC-BCWP)/(LRE-ACWP). Again to check against the CPI.

You can also evaluate EAC (Estimation at Completion) as ACWP plus ETC (Estimation to Completion) and the VAC (Variance at completion) as the difference between the BAC (Budget at Completion) and EAC.

So You can evaluate the cost and schedule trend, make estimation at completion and check their reliability.
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