"STRATEGIES TO INCLUDE CONTINGENCY IN PUBLIC PROJECT ESTIMATES" by Piero Anticona

Abstract: In some countries, Public Projects do not allow Contingency. As Private Projects, they also finish with cost overruns, because they are not exempt from the same problems during the execution of activities.

Can we determine a good strategy to include a contingency in their budgets and meet point estimates to avoid cost overruns?

The author has analysed different tools and techniques to respond strategically or tactically to an event and especially that can adapt to Public Projects Policies if we want a high confidence level of probability to meet project point estimates.

In addition, there is an analysis of what tools and techniques can help projects to monitor if these alternatives are helping to meet criteria like tendency charts or accuracy and precision of final estimates in order to accomplish projects' objectives.

A preliminary assessment can be conducted when preparing Estimates during Sensitivity Analysis, therefore, we can evaluate what strategy can be implemented for specific cost drivers and their potential impacts.

We can conclude that Buffer and Contingency strategy from the Guild of Project Controls is a good technique that meets all the criteria to prevent exceed Public Projects' Estimates.

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