Project Risk Analysis

Chachrist,



The fundamental of schedule risk are pending issues not resolve pro-actively.



Even how much effort we place in the program, pending issues much be resolve.



Why this happen and how software can galvanize the project team to act now instead of tomorrow (XX days from now).



Cheers,



Sensie

Guys, if you could give me an example of risk analysis feature you want in general, or suggest me about how we should interpret TF, FF, INDF in the matter of risk.



For example from David Waddle "what if we are building on a site that is prone to flooding at a particular time of year? What activities are we planning for that period? History shows the site will be flooded for 4 weeks"

I will come up with something. Actually I aready have something to show you guys and I promise it is free.

Hello Alexi,



Now a days sure planners depend on the latest software no doubt on that, of course we need those tools. Not unless you are doing a Burial Planning. As you said find the missing skill? what is that missing skill. For me if you consider your self as a professional planner, then you are having those necessary skill to be consider as one right?



Now software is only a secondary tool be used for anything regarding computer system, the first tool is ourselves, our experienced and knowledge, and what else...our skill.



Hope this can clear our thoughts.

Jerry,

I agree with you that experiences that matters.

However, IMHO a expensive software is a tool, and you need the two combine in order have a good result. Agree??

Yes you can analysis a 100 activity schedule in a piece of paper. however, what if you have a 10k activities schedule.

Can you still do it?? Can experience do the task without a right tool?? Can you finishi the analysis before the next board meeting??

Tools, Process, and People

Cheers

Alex

Hello..Charles,



Long time I didn’t hear from you. Well as of yes I keep on moving from one place to another, just part of the job. Now, talking about the topic of "Risks" in a project.



I certainly agree to everybody having thier views on how to handle, how to mitigate and how to predect Risks.



However, I should say in general...experienced really matter.



Seeyah all.



Charlie, I just came back from Iligan, its not a vacation but an emergency, my sister.



Charles, there is a news that in Surigao city the geoterium project will go ahead.



Regards,

Hi Jerry,



That good.



I did develop some mathematical model regarding risk management.



I’m going for higher level: let say we identified the risk, then, we will run the programme in the event the risk will happen in the future, then from this impacted programme, we will drive the cost.



After accumulating the data, schedule and cost impact due to occurence of risk, management team will have an option on what course of action to make in mitigating the impact of risk occurence.



Is it possible to have colour coding of risk, Why not? Is it possible.



Cheers,



Charlie



I notice you are now base in Malaysia. Well that good to travel around the world instead of getting stuck up in Iligan

Hi,

The process you have to follow is exeplained in details in the Project Management Body Of Knowledge book(PMBOK)

so you have to follow the sameproceedure and analize the project to get the real risk impact against the right corrective actions.

The folloeings are the summary of the main points :-

*Risk analysis is a part of the risk management process.

*Risk management planning is a part of planning process group.

* Risk management planning procss is important to ensure that the level,type and visibility of risk mansgement are cmmensurate with both the risk and importance to the project to the organization,to provide sufficient resources and time for risk management and it shall be completed early during the project planning.

*Risk response planning is the process of developing options and determining several actions to enhance and reduce threats to project objectives.

*Stratigies for nigative risks;

Avoid

Transfer

Mitigate

Accepte

Share

Enhance

GOOD LUCK

Hey! Charles,



Last week we do a siminar regarding this Risks Analysis, we don,t need to use Monte Carlo soft ware. The other term of the siminar is the Project Risks Analysis (PRA) whereby you can predect, Assume & forecast.

And then you will have this; optimistic, most likely and pessimistic, then the creation of mitigation action to be taken to reduce the impact.

First of all you will be having a model, then the rest will follow. Then we create the Table, the Risks Register, and list down; schedule activity, causes for possible delay to schedule, impact of activity,action person, action due date and mitigation.



It’s a 4 days seminar all of us having fun of course it was held in a 5 star hotel...everything paid by the company, and there are 22 of us.



It was a successful training for the group.Expensive soft ware is not really necessary, the most important is the way you present, the system you use and the interest of the participants, how the way they cooperate by giving thier views of the project.



See yah..



Jerry

You all seem to be getting hung up on which risk technique to use rather than the quality of the underlying data. You should model the project risk register as developed at the Risk Review sessions by the project team. The identified risks are aligned (directly or indirectly) with schedule activities and you can use any software (technique) to help the project to make better informed decisions at strategic points in the project.

Hello to all,



what im thinking "is it possible to run risk analysis without using montecarlo or pertmaster?"



I want it cheap becuase i dont have the money, but im very good in mathematics.



Someone out there will to form collaboration with me to run risk analysis without using expensive software.



We will start with the basic of risk analysis



regards,



charlie

I agree with all you say

DS

For decent Risk Analysis you need a meaningful model or Risk Plan, usually the main schedule isn’t appropriate for this so you need to create and maintain a fully networked level 1/2 schedule (no more than 100-150 lines)....design it using pert rather than gant as you are more interested in durations than dates....until you get to the output stage.



We use it regularly at work package level for those work packages that experience tells us are likely to be problematic. Regardless of the tools you use...the process you have to go though is the same and requires some quality thinking and a good facilitator to challenge PM/Engineering optomisms and get the real risk impacts against the right activities. Its almost worth it just for the extra bit of thinking it generates.

Risk is dependant on the method used, resourses available, cost or time priority amoung a few others. Your initial critical path will reflect the chosen criteria for getting the job done. You may tell the programme/schedule network a number of different durations for each of the tasks i.e. pessimistic, optimistic and/or realistic that your team consensus agrees with and opt for the number of iterations recomended. 1000 to me seems ridiculously humungous. As the project progresses however, situations do often change and it may be necessary to review the method used, resourses available, cost or time priority amoungst a few others that may now be calling the tune. The project network may have to be revised in part or whole for the remaining contract duration and to reflect the change in priority. You would have to revisit the durations again and run it again. The computer and the original network can not do it. You the planner will have to do it. Don’t you agree? So don’t get hung up on the iterations as there is more to it then that

David,



perhaps this could be the subject of a poll

The usage of risk analysis techniques depends on the size, complex nature / contractual requirement of projects & including management attitude of a company.