Planned values of Early & Late curves Vs Actual value

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The volume of work completed is a good indication of progress overall but you need to be using something like Earned Duration or Earned Schedule to see the potential effect. These techniques forecast completion based on performance to date and have been shown to be reliable indicators, see: https://mosaicprojects.com.au/PMKI-SCH-040.php#Process2  

However, this is different to the measure of progress on the critical path. You need both for a complete picture, but you also need to recognise the projected completion based on CPM is wildly optimisitic: https://mosaicprojects.com.au/PDF_Papers/P117_Why_Critical_Path_Scheduling_is_Wildly_Optimistic.pdf