Summary
Energy and mining projects are complex and mostly being executed in remote areas. Site accessibility, weather, uneven terrain, and mobility are the factors that make it more difficult to execute remote area projects. After asset acquisition and getting all necessary permits, the construction of an access road to actual site area is a topmost priority.
Flash flood is unpredictable and can be showstopper in hilly terrain. Analyzing the impact of flash flood, using Monte Carlo simulation, helps to examine the various scenarios and plan mitigation actions to minimize the risk.
Case Study
The construction of access roads is an extremely important that needs to be done at the right time. Any delay in construction can delay the site access and mobilization of team and equipment for field development, and It also needs to be done with the best equipment and materials available, keeping in mind the specific needs of the client.
Flash Floods are unpredictable. Mostly, water follows its path, but it changes its direction depending upon the water quantity and pressure, etc.
Project Schedule
Level I project schedule is shown in fig. 1:
https://i2.wp.com/www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-... 300w, https://i2.wp.com/www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-... [1] 1024w, https://i2.wp.com/www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-... [2] 768w, https://i2.wp.com/www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-... [3] 1536w, https://i2.wp.com/www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-... [4] 600w" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-width: initial; border-style: none; height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: inline-block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; border-radius: 0px; box-shadow: none; vertical-align: middle;" width="800">Fig. 1- Level 1 Schedule
Uncertainty and Risk
There can be a long list of risks but considered only three (3) top risks.
- Flash Flood – Recurring flash flood from May to Sep to hamper Access Road Construction and Plant site.
- Delay in delivery of Bulk Material to site
- Unavailability of Skilled Labor
Risks were mapped to the activities along with the uncertainties.
Monte Carlo Simulation
After schedule check, mapping uncertainties and risks to schedule activities ran the Monte Carlo Simulation. The “Distribution Graph” is showing the results for a schedule in fig. 2:
https://i2.wp.com/www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-... 300w, https://i2.wp.com/www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-... [5] 1024w, https://i2.wp.com/www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-... [6] 768w, https://i2.wp.com/www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Access-Road-... [7] 600w" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-width: initial; border-style: none; height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: inline-block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; border-radius: 0px; box-shadow: none; vertical-align: middle;" width="800">Fig. 2 - Distribution Graph (S Curve) for a Schedule
With uncertainties and risks, the chances of meeting target date are almost 0%. The distribution graph shows that there will be a 50% (mean) chance that the project will be completed on 22-10-2021 i.e., 57 days.
What about the time-phased cost? The “Distribution Graph” is showing the results for a cost in fig. 3:
https://i2.wp.com/www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Cost.png?res... 300w, https://i2.wp.com/www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Cost.png?res... [8] 1024w, https://i2.wp.com/www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Cost.png?res... [9] 768w, https://i2.wp.com/www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Cost.png?res... [10] 600w" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-width: initial; border-style: none; height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: inline-block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; border-radius: 0px; box-shadow: none; vertical-align: middle;" width="800">Fig.3 - Distribution Graph (S Curve) for a Cost
With uncertainties and risks, the chances of meeting target estimated costs are almost 3%. The distribution graph shows that there will be 50% (mean) chance that extra cost will be $ 1,445,705. Furthermore, there will be an 80% chance that total project cost will be around $11.72 M.
https://i0.wp.com/www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/PCF.png?resi... 300w, https://i0.wp.com/www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/PCF.png?resi... [11] 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/PCF.png?resi... [12] 768w, https://i0.wp.com/www.gleeym.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/PCF.png?resi... [13] 600w" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-width: initial; border-style: none; height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: inline-block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; border-radius: 0px; box-shadow: none; vertical-align: middle;" width="800">Fig. 4 - Probabilistic Cash Flow (PCF)
What if to visualize the impact of Flash flood to schedule only? The “Distribution Graph” is showing the impact of Flash flood to a schedule in fig. 5.
visit https://www.gleeym.com/2021/02/16/accessroad/ for more details.