Risk analysis is usually modeled in a tool such as PertMaster which not only allows you to quantify the optimistic, most likely and pessimistic durations and the distribution between the low and high values BUT also allows:-
probabilistic calendars to model weather, industrial stoppages, etc
conditional branching to model contingency plans should a key milestone date be exceeded (recovery plan)
probabilistic branching to model activities failing to meet a standard/or test x% of the time and therefore rework/redesign is required and those activities are pre-defined.
It will run many iterations (you can supply) and produce outputs showing how often activities are critical and the range of expected resource and cost outcomes.
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24 years 6 monthsRE: Project Risk Analysis
Dattatreya,
Risk analysis is usually modeled in a tool such as PertMaster which not only allows you to quantify the optimistic, most likely and pessimistic durations and the distribution between the low and high values BUT also allows:-
probabilistic calendars to model weather, industrial stoppages, etc
conditional branching to model contingency plans should a key milestone date be exceeded (recovery plan)
probabilistic branching to model activities failing to meet a standard/or test x% of the time and therefore rework/redesign is required and those activities are pre-defined.
It will run many iterations (you can supply) and produce outputs showing how often activities are critical and the range of expected resource and cost outcomes.
Take a look at http://www.pertmaster.com/ for further info.