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Best Risk Register

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Dennis Hanks
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Is there a better risk register than the Primavera Risk Analysis register? Thanks.

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Predict Manager
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Predict Manager Tool

Sorrey to come in with solution of risk register not fit your direct answer 

think in the image below, why you don't have the same to understand your task and sort risk accordingly 

if you like it and more about massege me

4888
a3pm_sample.jpg

Yasir Masood - PM...
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Hi,

I have developed a Risk register with Dashboard. Equally useful for Project and Entreprise and HSE Risk Management. visit http://www.planningplanet.com/blog/risk-register-dashboard-risk-communication

or contact me for details

 

Regards,

 

yasir

Dennis Hanks
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Santosh;

Thanks for the suggestion. ARM is interesting. It has the interface that PRA Risk Register needs - internet and dashboards.

Santosh Bhat
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If you want pure Risk Registering software - I would suggest looking into applications like CURA or ARM (Active Risk Manager) - although these are really designed for Enterprise wide Risk Management, and may not have very sophisticated Quantitative capabilities.

Personally, Iw ould suggest if you're happy with using PRA, stick to it.

Dennis Hanks
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Cierra;

In a day or two, I expect to have a video outlining how I think Primavera Risk Analysis Risk Register works. Some of that will apply to all risk registers. If time permits, I want to see how well the P6 R15.1 Risk Register populates PRA. Some of that may be useful to you. Open to any suggestions or experiences.

Cierra Luke
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Hey guys Thanks for this whole discussion on risk analysis. It helped me a lot. 

Rafael Davila
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Why don't you start this as a new thread?

  • It is an ongoing thread.
  • http://www.planningplanet.com/forums/planning-scheduling-programming-discussion/574396/comparison-resource-levelling-algorithms-di
  • Some related discussions can be included here as long as they are related but the bulk of these other topics shall be under separate discussion.
  • I agree we shall discuss the details about resource leveling outside this thread and let the discussion here to be concentrated on Risk Register.
Rafael Davila
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Due to a change in Photobucket agreement my posting using Photobucket reference are no longer available.

https://www.theverge.com/2017/7/4/15919224/photobucket-broken-images-ama...

I just changed to Postimage hosting service.

https://postimages.org/

Sorry for any inconvenience.

Best Regards,

Rafael Davila

Dennis Hanks
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This I can read. Not sure what I'm seeing. Anyone get P6 to read Rafael's file? What was the finish date?

Rafael Davila
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The report takes too much space to post it as a picture so please try the following link to SlideShare.

https://www.slideshare.net/secret/BnQl49mFM2W9E2

Try highlighting the above link, right click and select Go to Https://...

slideshare link photo slideshare link_zpscywjmbcl.jpg

Dennis Hanks
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P6 doesn't like the .xer file created by PRA. Getting error code PRMDB-3354-8. Interestingly P6 doesn't recognize UN/CEFACT .xml file generated by PRA. Unable to download/view your pdf file. Could you post a screen shot?

Interesting that the three programs produce such willdly different results on a simple project. 

Finish dates.

MSP Aug 19

Spider Sep 16

PRA Oct 19

Would like to see what P6 develops. If anyone can get output from P6, please share.

Why don't you start this as a new thread? This is an interesting, for some, important situation. If you can't get the resource leveling to agree, you sure can't expect to get the 'correct' expected finish date.

I think I have my answer as to the best Risk Register. It's PRA. Doubt I will participate further until I can get P6 to play.

Good point.

Rafael Davila
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Can't get P6 to digest the xml file.

  • Suggest using PRA to generate the XER file.

It hiccups on no WBS codes. What leveling results did you get from Spyder?

  • You can download the results on PDF format from the previously posted link.
  • http://www.mediafire.com/view/2e3ksvzwglfv6w2/Spider_Project_Model_for_3013_8.pdf
  • as of today it has been downloaded 22 times
  • 06192015 photo downloads_zpsq2ueabwd.jpg
  • You can alternatively try the following link:
  • http://www.4shared.com/office/svrTLeV1ba/Spider_Project_Model_for_3013_.html 
  • Resource leveled schedule duration = 114 days
  • Project Start   = 04/06/2015  08:00:00
  • Project Finish = 09/10/2015  17:00:00

I heard this schedule would expose the flaw on MS Project and perhaps on Asta Power Project.  I am trying to confirm this but no one have posted the detailed resource usage plan for both software.  

Beware that MS Project can allocate some resources to work outside the activity work days without increasing the duration and this might hide the flaw if using activity duration criteria only.  Because Asta PP is supposed to be very compatible with MS Project it might be it have similar flaws.

I would like to verify PRA resource usage plan to make sure there is no such flaw even when I do not expect it.

I understand that conversion from P6 to PRA is not perfect because both handle some functionalities differently, among them date constraints.  In simple projects the conversion will be fine but not always.  So not all differences will be because of the resource leveling engine only. 

Best Regards,

Rafael

Dennis Hanks
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Can't get P6 to digest the xml file. It hiccups on no WBS codes. What leveling results did you get from Spyder?

Rafael Davila
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Expected different results. MSP 2010 leveled finish date is Aug 19. PRA leveled finish date is Oct 19. I did something wrong. Any idea?

  • I suspect PRA is a feasible schedule but MSP can have a flaw.  It is possible MSP did not scheduled the resources within each activity as meeting resources working together at the same time, as if a crane can be assigned at different time to a crane operator. This would render MSP resource leveled schedule unfeasible.  
  • To figure out if there is a flaw in MSP a PDF of the MS Projec resource leveled schedule can let is know if there is such flaw.  If an activity duration was increased after resource leveling it would tell us some resources are scheduled to work at different dates on same activity.
  • If using P6 I would not be surprised if resource leveled schedule results latter than PRA, it might be resource leveling engine using PRA yields shorter duration, that would make it a better option for management than P6.

Best Regards,

Rafael

Rafael Davila
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Dennis,

Downloaded and opened in MSP2010. I was hoping for a 'real' schedule. I'll take a look at it, but I think we'd be better served by real world examples.

  • not a real life schedule but a simple schedule created with the intention to test resource leveling algorithms.  It is possible for other test schedules the relative performance of the compared software might be inverted.
  • For all I have tested Spider Project came out as the winner or a tie.

Should be able to import into PRA with no problems. What are my resource limits? Will let you know. May not be able to get to until Wednesday or Thursday.

  • Please see Spider Project PDF for resource limits and Spider resource leveling.
  • The idea is to make the results open so anyone can verify them.
  • http://www.mediafire.com/view/2e3ksvzwglfv6w2/Spider_Project_Model_for_3013_8.pdf

With Spider I can make resource dependencies to be "hard" logic and export it to a MS Project file I am not sure you will be able to read but if you want we can try.

Best Regards,

Rafael

Dennis Hanks
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Expected different results. MSP 2010 leveled finish date is Aug 19. PRA leveled finish date is Oct 19. I did something wrong. Any idea?

2474
MSP input

2475
MSP leveled

2476
PRA leveled

Dennis Hanks
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Rafael;

Downloaded and opened in MSP2010. I was hoping for a 'real' schedule. I'll take a look at it, but I think we'd be better served by real world examples. Should be able to import into PRA with no problems. What are my resource limits? Will let you know. May not be able to get to until Wednesday or Thursday.

Rafael Davila
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For a Start,

http://www.mediafire.com/view/h18f4xmcqymp2wh/j3013_8_1b.xml

I only use Spider Project and the file conversion to MS Project for the moment can only be read by Spider and MS Project 2007.  If you have MS Project 2007 installed, then open it and save it again and the file will be fixed fixed as to be read using other software.  But as I told you I only use Spider and do not have MS Project license. The enclosed file was fixed by someone else. You should be able to upload it into PRA.  

Do you have MS Project 2007?  I wonder if newer MS Project versions can also open it.

I hope that eventually all software vendors provide for exporting using UN/CEFACT IMS format as Primavera P6 V15, an open format that should be easier to update, something that should not be so frequent as MS Project, XER, Spider that must be updated as more functionality is added to these products, which is good.  Having both, your software and UN/CEFACT IMS formats would be even better. 

  • Companies that work with the US Government and others governments/companies that have adopted the UN/CEFACT standards will find that Primavera P6 has support for the IMS (Integrated Master Schedule) format in version 15.1. In P6 15.1, you can now export your project in a fully compliant UN/CEFACT IMS format. Apparently previous versions of Primavera P6 had this features, but some of the data elements were missing in the export. The export is now fully-compliant to the standards.

Best Regards,

Rafael

Dennis Hanks
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Rafael;

I'd be interested in testing your schedules in PRA. No promise on how quickly I could perform the analysis. Do you have Skype? As I recall, you are in OTC -5 (Eastern time zone) so communication should be relatively easy. Send me a PM, if you're still interested. 

Rafael Davila
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Dennis,

I believe we can appreciate the value of risk models if we start to view them as a good way to increase the chances of success, of finishing on time. The cumulative probabilities give us a quantitative measure that is a good measure though never perfect, excessive granularity will not help to increase accuracy and/or precision. 

Our risk models are dynamic and must be updated. Some risks might mean a significant change in schedule that no single Monte Carlo run will be enough.  Say for example in case of a hurricane, still contingency plans should be in place before it happens.  In case of a bridge it can be a flooding.  Creating a single model that will react to all risk events can be too much.

I hope eventually the idea on risk analysis and use of some risk register become more common.  I see risk registers more as part of a good and practical methodology than a functionality of a software.  With any software that can keep tables you shall be able to create the register table and use it with your scheduling software, no need to be the same software.  Because the register is by itself not a model some might believe it is better if using a separate table.

You are among the fist one I realize advocating for risk register and I hope the discussion will continue. Our methods and models are not perfect and there is room to improve them.

We prepare hurricane contingency plans close to the start of hurricane seaso as to better consider the state of our jobs.  Not necesarily using CPM schedules but it makes sense keeping the list a single one.  A list that can change with time, for example a strike at our ports can have huge impact.  Recently a shipping line stopped delivering fro certain US ports and this had significant impact on some operations. Some companies do have contingency plans for such ocurrences in order for the reaction to it be fast. Making the list transparent can motivate others to contribute into identifying potential risks.

Best Regards,

Rafael

Rafael Davila
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Dennis,

About my preference for risk register at this point is that it is not a bad idea for it to be embedded on the software you use for risk modeling.  This means Risk Register within PRA is good as a Risk Register as long as you do not interchange files with software using different resource leveling algorithm with the purpose of managing the schedule using one and using the other for risk analysis.  

The issue that might still be pending would be how good is the resource leveling engine in PRA, it is different to P6 and it might be better. If you have PRA we can investigate a few test schedules and compare resource leveling results under another discussion.

Best Regards,

Rafael

Dennis Hanks
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Rafael;

I resource level by adjusting durations during initial development - by craft/discipline. Not too bad, if you do it as you go along. Prefer it because maintaining the logic is more important. Not too often do I encounter rigid resource constraints. Try to smooth, but not really level - ramp up, stable, ramp down. Rely on the WBS to minimize congestion.

You bring up an interesting point that I've never thought about. I'll have to check it out. My post-FEED schedules, are usually risked by craft/discipline templated risk factors.  Note: The range is from the estimator's unit rate uncertainty. 

As soon as I get a chance, I'll see what PRA does with resource leveling. Not sure how I'll set the limits. Might be fun. I don't use P6 for any risking outside of reflections - what ifs.

Still doesn't tell me anything about your preference for a Risk Register.

Rafael Davila
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Dennis,

I do not agree that warning about transfer of risk registers among software using different resource leveling algorithm is not relevant when it is a common error among those who use it on resource leveled project.

To my knowledge I do not know a single Monte Carlo based schedule simulation that preforms a Monte Carlo run to determine risk values, then stop for user to manual level each schedule itieration, hudreds or thousands of times and then compile the results to get the probability distributions.  

As you just said you manually resource level your schedules, it will be good to know how you perform resource leveled Monte Carlo iterations, this is something new to me. 

Best Regards,

Rafael

Dennis Hanks
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Rafael; ....................................................................................................................................Hmmm........... I can't add paragraph breaks. Excuse the ........................................................ Do you mean the register was eliminated in newer P6 versions? No, I misspoke.....................................................................................................................................It would be no surprise to me if P15.1 does not provide any longer the risk register.  If this is the case then there is nothing to transfer and this makes sense, a change in the right direction. Actually, it looks like it may be an effective alternative to Excel derived risk registers. I've never used it because I have PRA. Thanks for the mention.
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p6risk.jpg
.................................................................................................................................................Resource leveling has not entered the conversation. Again, what are you talking about?Of course you did not raised the question but I did, unless this is supposed to be a monolog anyone can raise the issue. Maybe not a monolog, but it would be nice to confine it to the subject at hand - Risk Registers. Should you and Vlad like to start a thread comparing Western and Russian project control techniques, I think you should. For the present, if you have a product that I can look at, I'd appreciate it. I'm currently evaluating Risky Project as suggested by Vlad...........................................................................................................................Based on your question I am not surprised in any way you never though about the impact of changed schedule due to changes in activity durations and how this impacts the resource leveling, to me its impact and relevance is very obvious except for those who want to sell risk analysis software/services by any means. I have no wish to sell anything, at this point. My plan was to investigate the market offerings for Risk Registers. >>..........................................................................................................................A comparison of resource leveled  schedules might make a interesting exercise. I usually do a manual leveling, so this isn't a concern for me. Still, might be interesting..................................................................................................................................
Rafael Davila
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Dennis,

You said;  One of us is confused. There is no risk register in P6, unless something has changed recently. I'm using P15.1. What are you talking about? 

Resource leveling has not entered the conversation. Again, what are you talking about?

  • Of course you did not raised the question but I did, unless this is supposed to be a monolog anyone can raise the issue. 
  • Based on your question I am not surprised in any way you never though about the impact of changed schedule due to changes in activity durations and how this impacts the resource leveling, to me its impact and relevance is very obvious except for those who want to sell risk analysis software/services by any means.

Best Regards,

Rafael

 

Dennis Hanks
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Rafael;

Resource leveling has not entered the conversation. Again, what are you talking about?

You were right, there is a risk register - of sorts - in P6. Never used it. I will take a look at it. Not part of this discussion, as far as I'm concerned.

Rafael Davila
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A basic requirement on resource leveled jobs would be for the risk register be used on similar engines, if not I do not see any difference as if using Excel. 

To my understanding P6 cannot model risk, using it as a notebook does not makes much sense to me even if you do not consider resource leveling in your plans.

Why keeping the Register on P6 if the Risk model will be on PRA? It is unnecessary duplication of effort that can increase the possibility of errors.

Dennis Hanks
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Rafael;

What does this have to do with evaluating Risk Registers?

Dennis Hanks
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Vlad;

Having difficulty importing P6 schedule in Risky Project. Works seemlessly with MSP. Will try again when I have more time. Still have thirty days. Thanks for the suggestion.

Rafael Davila
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http://www.spiderproject.com/images/img/pdf/Project%20Control%20Methodologies.pdf

RCS01 photo RCS01_zpsijuu8tsd.jpg

It is about a common error by those who do not understand that scheduling engines must be the same you use for management and you use to get the risk analysis.  Using different engine or leveling algorithms results in useless simulation. 

If you run a single Monte Carlo Run it would be executed as a deterministic schedule using the values from a Monte Carlo run.  If using P6, Spider Project or PRA the results on a resource leveled job will most probably differ.  A Monte Carlo simulation will do the same hundreds or thousands of times and will yield different distributions for the same schedule, the ones that keep the relationship are those using same resource leveling engine.

Dennis Hanks
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Rafael:

I have no idea what you are talking about. 

Rafael Davila
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I see no value in importing/sharing a Risk Register between two different resource leveling engines.  P6 and PRA use different resource leveling engines and each can yield different resource leveled schedules, just that PRA yield thousands different resource leveled schedules, different on each iteration. It is like going over and over the same error thousand times without even noticing the flaw.

For a Nuclear Power Plant resource leveled job it might not be different if managing using a Burger King Schedule stretched to match deterministic duration.  You will get nice distributions that are equally unrelated.  Keeping activity count and relationships is not enough to keep the analysis valid, you must use the same engine you use for managing the job.

Are you suggesting to use P6 as a data entry software to transfer the schedule into PRA for actual Risk and Schedule Management?  What a mess on every update if using P6 for data entry.  Why not using PRA only and forget about P6?

Using both software can mislead someone to believe P6 schedule can be used for management while keeping the PRA Risk Analysis valid under resource leveled jobs.

Dennis Hanks
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Thanks. I didn't see this when I visited their site. Downloading now. Will let you know what I think.

http://www.intaver.com/index-downloads.html - free 30 days trial.

I met them at Construction CPM Conference exhibition. Looked interesting.

Dennis Hanks
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Thanks for the suggestion. Did not see an option for a free trial. Could have possibilities. Video weren't helpful. Again, thanks.

Did you look at Risky Project?

http://www.intaver.com/riskyprojectprof.html

Dennis Hanks
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Vlad;

We may be talking past each other. Linking the risk to the schedule is the power of PRA Risk Register. I hoped the screen shot would show that. I guess not. Doesn't matter. If you don't use PRA, you'll never use its Risk Register. Was looking for other alternatives. Thanks for responding.

Dennis,

I don't understand linking risk with an activity. Project risk is an event that may happen with certain probability and lead to some consequences. So it shall be seen in the project schedule, not just in Risk Register or some other document.

Risk Register is useful project document that contains valuable information on potential risk events that shall be managed in the project. For risk simulation and determining required contingency reserves these events shall be included in the project schedule together with their potential impacts. It does not look like this process is automated. 

Dennis Hanks
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Vlad;

I agree, they don't do a good job of portraying this. Maybe a couple of screen shots will help. Cross your fingers I can make it work. Probably can't read it, but I've mapped Risk 060 to Activity 2. This is post mitigation, but you can compare pre and post mitigation to have an idea what impact the risk might have. Useful for pre-FEED. Not so much for post-FEED.

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risk01.jpg

Dennis, I did not find an integration of the Risk Register with the project schedules in the refered materials.

I understand that each risk event represented at risk register may happen with some probability and if happened may lead to changes in the project schedule (and Budget, resource requirements, etc.) that may be multiple and with certain probability for each of them. As the result we shall get probabilistic schedule model that includes probabilities for risk events and network branches in this schedule.

I did not  find how this information is reflected in the Risk Register and how it is transfered into the project schedule.

Dennis Hanks
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Rafael;

McNatty seems to ignore the schedule integration. Since version (I forget which), the register comes bundled with PRA. You can't buy it without buying PRA. It's good, but not that good. It's there to use or not. I think it's better than any other register including Shell's. Trying to find if any others are comparable or better. There's some sound programming behind the PRA Risk Register. 

Dennis Hanks
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Vlad;

The additional functionality lies with its integration with the schedule. This is from Oracle, but it's a bit more powerful than described.

From Oracle: http://www.oracle.com/us/industries/utilities/042528.pdf

Risk Register By using the Risk Register feature in Primavera Risk Analysis, users can integrate predeveloped risk registers as well as define new ones (see Figure 1). Users can also employ this feature to produce both qualitative and quantitative models of positive and negative risk events (threats and opportunities) and their associated response plans (such as mitigation). Risk Register also automatically integrates identified risk events into the schedule, by creating a risk event plan, which users can then analyze to determine both key risk drivers and the cost-effectiveness of the identified mitigation strategies.

Rafael Davila
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From :

http://www.drmcnatty.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/July-2012-...

You can see it is just like a notebook full of colors, therefore MacPaint could be a substitute. It is just an excuse to sell something you do not nead to do the same job when MacPaint can do better colors.  Maybe the void is due to Ms Paint that is not so good at painting as MacPaint and a software application was developed to do the job of a dedicated notebook, some people will buy watever you sell them.

LOL

No, I did not use it and could not imagine what functionality do you mean.

Can you please describe any functional feature of Risk Register?

Dennis Hanks
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Vlad: 

Actually it does. The functionality of the PRA Risk Register is impressive and worthy of comparison. Have you used it?

Risk Register is a table where project risks and their properties are listed. It can be created in Excel, Word, any other software that permits to fill tables, or just filled manually. So it does not make sense to compare which software is better for editing table data.