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Forecasting methods studies in Earned Value Analysis

6 replies [Last post]
Mon, 2007-05-28 19:18
ersin namli
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Hi, I’m studing Earned Value Management in my doctorate thesis actually cost estimation methods in Earned Value Management. Do you know any studies about Cost or Schedule Estimation methods except simple CPI and SPI calculation methods. I’m waiting your advises about what can i do.


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Wed, 2007-05-30 17:50
#1
ersin namli
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First thanks for your interests. Softwares that we use for Earned value Analysis use basic math and basic formulas for estimation. It’s easy to see current estimtion methods are unreliable and useless. Ofcourse I know what is Eaned Value and what Earned Value is not. I was waiting different ideas but anyway thanks again
I’ll inform you about progress.
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Wed, 2007-05-30 09:03
#2
Oliver Melling
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EVM is definately a topic that you could cover in a doctorate thesis.

For instance, the application and suitability of its use in different industries is one area that could be explored, as is the testing of its limitations and possible areas for improvement, such as introducing ’earned schedule’ methodology.

However, the fact that someone is doing a doctorate on EV and doesn’t know about things such as EAC and TCPI is suspect.

’Isnt it still a guess multiplied by a guess ?’

Even quantum physics and the theory of relativity are guesses based upon guesses.
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Wed, 2007-05-30 04:22
#3
Steven Oliver
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I find it incredible that someone claiming to be

"studing Earned Value Management in my doctorate thesis ", should be asking such a basic question.

Further, since when did EV become such a science that it necessitates a doctorate thesis?.


Isnt it still a guess multiplied by a guess ?
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Tue, 2007-05-29 01:27
#4
A D
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On PMI’s website (www.pmi.org) book on earned value analysis is available.

This is one of the best book I have ever read on earned value analysis. But, you need to purchase the same.

It covers basic elements, EVm performance Analysis and Forecasting, gives guidance for use of key EVM practices.

Cheers,

Raviraj A Bhedase
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Mon, 2007-05-28 23:26
#5
Karim Mounir
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Hi ersin,

Take a look at this file:
http://www.planningengineers.org/publications/papers_download.aspx?id=8

Regards,
Karim
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Mon, 2007-05-28 20:21
#6
Andrew Dick
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Here are some others to get you started

I’m quite sure there will be heaps more offered soon


EV Formula
Schedule Variance Dollarised, SV$ = BCWP - BCWS
Schedule Variance Percent, SV% = SV$/BCW S* 100%

Cost Variance Dollarised, CV$ = BCWP – ACWP
Cost Variance Percent, CV% = CV$/BCWP * 100%

Percent Complete, %C = BCWP/BAC * 100

Schedule Performance Index, SPI = BCWP/BCWS
Cost Performance Index, CPI = BCWP/ACWP
To Complete Perf Index, TCPI = (BAC-BCWP) / (EAC-ACWP)

Estimate at Complete EAC = ACWP + ETC
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