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Monte Carlo

3 replies [Last post]
Barry Fullarton
User offline. Last seen 7 years 50 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 6 Jan 2009
Posts: 41
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Hi Guys

who can help me briefly on how this works

I have a baseline program and a as built and I want Monte Carlo to compare the two in terms of risk and see the difference in an s curve

regards and Thanks

Replies

Omar Grant
User offline. Last seen 10 years 31 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 25 Sep 2005
Posts: 71
Hi Barry, I still think my first suggestion is the best but obviously requires Pertmaster or some similar product which will produce the schedule completion probablity curve for each schedule which can be compared in a table etc. If your front-end activities in the current schedule truly have increased the schedule risk then Pertmaster should (at least in theory!!) highlight those activities as high in cruciality etc. Otherwise, (and I assume both schedules are resource loaded?) dropping the resource loads into Excel for both schedules and comparing the front end loadings? Hope this helps
Barry Fullarton
User offline. Last seen 7 years 50 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 6 Jan 2009
Posts: 41
Groups: None
Hi Omar

what I am trying to achieve is the following

1. I have a baseline program as submitted buy the Contractor. This I am using in P3 as my Target or Baseline
2. I then have my current schedule and to this has been added activities , or scope of work , but shows the same completion date
3. What I need to demonstrate in a Curve is the Front end load of the additional scope and showing that this additional Scope has added or increased the risk of the Projects Completion Date

Regards
Omar Grant
User offline. Last seen 10 years 31 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 25 Sep 2005
Posts: 71
Hi Barry - do you have Pertmaster or a similar program? If you do you could run the risk analysis on each of your schedules to get the probablity values 0-100% for each then graph into Excel - is that what you are after?

cheers,

Omar