Guild of Project Controls: Compendium | Roles | Assessment | Certifications | Membership

Tips on using this forum..

(1) Explain your problem, don't simply post "This isn't working". What were you doing when you faced the problem? What have you tried to resolve - did you look for a solution using "Search" ? Has it happened just once or several times?

(2) It's also good to get feedback when a solution is found, return to the original post to explain how it was resolved so that more people can also use the results.

Progressing against the Mean Curve

4 replies [Last post]
Tue, 2006-08-15 21:38
George Gray
User offline. Last seen 4 years 28 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 25 Aug 2004
Posts: 26
Groups: Petro-Chem / Oil & Gas
Ladies and Gents

Can you offer your opinions please. I am currently working on a project where our contractor refuses to measure his progress against his early curve and measures it against the ’MEAN" curve which lies between his early and late curve. He has managed to persuade his management and subsequantly they have persuaded my management that this is an Oil & Gas Industry Norm. I am currently working in Kuala Lumpur Malaysia and there are a lot of politics involved.

I should point out that I have been in the OIl & Gas Industry for over 30 years and I have never come across this and I have difficulty getting my head round it.

On top of this they have to provide a contract master schedule for us to agree and put in the contract, but this CMS will show Early Dates. By their own admission they say that although their schedule is based on early dates, they want to progress against the Mean dates as in their opinion their Early Curve is not achieveable and by using this to monitor their progress they are planning to fail. I have the opposite opinion and my feelings are that it is necessary to try to achieve the Early Curve, even though as the project progresses it may become aparrent that the Early Curve may not be achieveable, it is still necessary to aim for the optimistic. In my opinion by using the Mean curve then we are aiming to fail, esoecially as they will also be using this curve to forecast their manning levels which means in effect that they do not intend to resource the project as necessary.
Another point is that by refusing to use their early curve for monitoring, as they feel it is unachieveable, this also means that their schedule which is based on early dates is also unachieveable and therefore should be rejected.

As stated I have been in this game for over 30 years and I have never come across this and I do not believe that it is an industry norm in the OIl & Gas Industry (maybe in Malaysia but not anywhere else), what I believe is that this is a smokescreen to make the contractor look good. However I consider myself to be open minded about things so the question is has anyone else come across this system, or is anybody currently usign this method and can you convince me of its benefits.

All comments welcome

Thanks







Top

Replies

Wed, 2006-08-16 20:26
#1
George Gray
User offline. Last seen 4 years 28 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 25 Aug 2004
Posts: 26
Groups: Petro-Chem / Oil & Gas
Gents

Thanks for taking the time to reply, it is appreciated. As my management have approved this we will just have to plod on and see what happens.
Top
Wed, 2006-08-16 05:43
#2
John Lawson
User offline. Last seen 10 years 49 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 6 Oct 2004
Posts: 113
Groups: Petro-Chem / Oil & Gas
Hi George,

I remember the term "Mean Curve" from the 1970’s, when I worked in the UK/Norway fabrication yards building Jackets & Modules for the North Sea. This was when we used to "hand crank" the arrow diagrams, manually do the forward/backward pass and then calculate/hand draw the histograms/S’Curves.

The Client would try to have the work progressed against the Early Curve and the Fabricators would naturally want to the Late Curve. The early curve being not acceptable to the Fabricator due to resouces/costs and the latter not been acceptable to the Client for completion /deliver dates.

In order to get the job done both parties would compromise and the "Mean Curve" would be the addopted as the curve to use. The planners would then "schedule" the work within the Early and Late Cuves envelopes and produce a "Mean Curve", hopefully acceptable to both parties. All three curves would appear on the charts and actuals / trends identified etc.

It sounds like your Contractor has "forgotten" to schedule the work to reflect his curve, if he so wishes to try and use an Early schedule best of luck to him as he will need it.

Regards

John
Top
Tue, 2006-08-15 23:54
#3
Charleston-Joseph...
User offline. Last seen 2 years 38 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 10 Jul 2005
Posts: 1347
Groups: None
Hi George,

You have to understand the culture of the place you worked. As you said, a lot of politic, or whatever etc.. I worked in Malaysia in the construction boom way back 1994 to 1996.

You don’t have to worry whatever curve the contractor will us in progressing. The fact that they sidelined early start for the reason "planning to fail .." shows only the weakness of the contractor. Rest assured whatever benchmark the contractor will use (baseline programme, revised programme 1,2,3, ...nth x, it will be the same result.

It is very clear your contractor is procrastinating on critical issues and activities.

In my humble opinion, it needs strong leaders with clear vision to attain planning goals and objective. The moment "popinjays or prima madonas or charlatans (persons who talk more and do least or pencil pushers (persons who writes a lot and accomplish nothing)" start to interfer in the execution of construction activities, then and then the result is obvious, if your 30 years experience means a lot to you.

The best you can do is enjoy the sun in Terrenganu. To exhuast your frustration, go wildlife adventure in the forest of Pahang (search for elephants, maybe some tigers) or go to relaxing in TIOMAN ISLAND. Avoid the casino in Genting Highland.

During office follow the golden rul: he who own the gold makes the rule,

So whatever you find non-traditional approach by the contractor, whisper it to the ear of the person who own the gold.

Cheers,

charlie
Top
Tue, 2006-08-15 22:24
#4
Zhang Haixiang
User offline. Last seen 3 years 27 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 14 Apr 2005
Posts: 250
Groups: None
Hello George Gray,

From your post, i think you have a clear understanding of this issue.

"this is a smokescreen to make the contractor look good"

to the contractor, the early date is difficult to achieve or not economical. That’s why they don’t want use early curve.

in my opinion, reject the schedule, and let them re-submit.(but i think if the late date meet the requirements of the contract, they will not do it)

Maybe you have to try this "mean curve" for this project, it’s not too bad.

BTW I never heard this "mean curve" before, if i’m working for contractor,may be i’ll try it.
Top