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Forecasting methods

10 replies [Last post]
Sun, 2005-05-15 22:02
Nitin Naik
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Dear All,

I am currently working on a engineering project which involves major roadworks. I have following queries. Your inputs are highly appreciated

a) Forecasting task using remaining duration approach in P3 version 3

b)Using S curve methodology to show the progress for design and procurement work. How to derive this curve?

c)Any tips on activities involved in construction of major structures such as overbridge, underpass etc.

d) Finally using S curve for the cash flow analysis

Please email me any related information at naik_nitin@hotmail.com
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Replies

Wed, 2005-05-18 09:02
#1
Zubaer Shariff
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Hi guys,
The best method to avoid calculations of activity weighing is to split activities to as much detail as possible. You will need a quantity surveyor to provide the breakdowns(for eg.):
1) Shuttering & steel fixing
2) Pouring concrete
This way you spend more time in creating schedule the first time, but you will get accurate project status, cash flows & resource loadings and earned values. This may increase no. of activites, but when you organise properly, any number of activities in P3 are no problem.
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Wed, 2005-05-18 03:22
#2
Dayanidhi Dhandapany
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Moosa, You can check with your QS dept for Valuation Break down for the project and based on the %age break down for major items you can use the weightage to distribute it to your activities based on their quantities, if you develop S-Curve based on cost/value then monitoring of overall progress would be easy.
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Wed, 2005-05-18 01:13
#3
Anand Kulkarni
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Moosa,

Activity weighing is agreed % complete against the completion of intermediate stages of the activity.

Like in RCC slab although you can assign the resources lag or the resources curve for consumption, their are steps to be achieved before that like shuttering, placing of reinforcement & than concreting.

So on completion of each phase you assign certain percentage complete i.e after completion of shuttering 20%,rein.50% & conc.100%

This is activity weighing. This is very useful for tracking

Same way you can use this for other activities like External lighting work etc. where you know, on completion of which phase what will be the overall % percentage complete.

Hope this is ok
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Wed, 2005-05-18 00:48
#4
Moosa Ali
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Thanx for your replies Anand and Dayanidhi Dhandapany.
But pls. explain how the activity weighing can be done?
Thanx
Moosa Ali
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Tue, 2005-05-17 23:28
#5
Anand Kulkarni
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Moosa,

Otherwise activity weighing can also help.

cheers!
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Tue, 2005-05-17 09:39
#6
Dayanidhi Dhandapany
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Moosa, use resource lag to begin the distribution period for the concrete quantity to required duration.
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Tue, 2005-05-17 08:45
#7
Moosa Ali
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Hi Anand
I got the reports. It is very much useful. Thanx
I have another doubt.
For e.g. If we consider concrete quantity of one activity F.F.Column : its duration is 12 days. Means this duration includes shuttering, steel fixing, concreting etc.
Concreting duration will be only one day.
My question is to forecast the quantity of concrete using; we want to split the activity F.F. column into column shuttering, column steel fixing, column concreting? Otherwise will we get the quantity of concrete of the concreting date?
If we didn’t split this activity the concrete quantity will be divided into its full duration i.e. 12 days. Right? Is there any method to get the concrete quantity without splitting that activity?
Thanking you
Moosa Ali
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Tue, 2005-05-17 04:22
#8
Moosa Ali
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Hi Ananad,
Pls email me too the files which explains further about the forecasting and S curve kskmampad@hotmail.com
Moosa Ali
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Mon, 2005-05-16 00:54
#9
Nitin Naik
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Hi Anand,

Thanks for the reply. If you can email me the files which explains further about the forecasting and S curve, it will be really useful.

thanks for your help once again

Nitin
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Mon, 2005-05-16 00:35
#10
Anand Kulkarni
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Hi Nitin,

a) For forecasting by remaining duration, in schedule report for look-ahead in selection select remaining duration instead of early dates.

b) S curve is generally prepared on the resources consumed per period & cash flow is derived from the same.

If you want will send the files for the same.

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